Flood Risk Management in a Changing Climate: a framework to increase resilience.

[This piece is published in ASFPM Foundation’s 5th Gilbert F.White Flood Policy Forum held September 17, 2015 “Climate-InformedScience and Flood RiskManagement:Opportunities andChallenges" Report,  See page 27.]

When it comes to the essence of a changing climate, the author Margaret Atwood and the Former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel come to mind. Atwood speaks to climate change as the “everything change” and Hagel describes it as a “threat multiplier”. Indeed both are true and reflect recent remarks by President Barack Obama who, in his second term, has made climate change, both mitigation and adaptation, a priority.

At the Global Leadership in the Arctic (GLACIER) Conference in Alaska, President Obama gave strong remarks on the science and impacts of climate change and on the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to become more resilient. The President spoke to the fact that the nation will need to move entire villages due to sea level rise, coastal erosion, increased seasonal flooding, storm surge and thawing permafrost.1  In fact, six Alaska communities are planning partial or total relocation, and 160 have been identified as threatened by climate-related erosion by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers which estimates relocation costs at $30 to $50 million per village.2   As the President noted in his remarks, Alaska is on the leading edge of climate change and is our indicator of what the planet faces.

We know two trends to be true for U.S. coastal areas, sea level is rising and population is increasing putting more people and assets at risk. A new trend has emerged based on NASA satellite data which suggest that sea level rise will be much higher than previous studies indicated and that as one scientist put it, we are “locked-in” to at least three feet of sea level rise and probably more. What is less clear is to how soon this will happen.3

USGCRP 2014 National Climate Assessment.

Climate change is expected to impact riverine flooding with increases of 45 percent by 2100.4

As this figure indicates, the nation has been experiencing heavy downpours, especially over the last three to five decades with the largest increases in the Midwest and Northeast.5

Just a few days prior to his Alaska trip, President Obama travelled to New Orleans to commemorate the 10th anniversary of Katrina and to focus on his “all-of-Nation approach” to helping communities build back stronger and more resilient.6  Many lessons can be drawn since Katrina and other recent events based on actions and innovations that have come from both the public and private sectors and have been captured in the 2014 National Climate Assessment.7  Included here is a five-part framework for flood risk management in a changing climate.

Make the business case through public private partnerships (P3’s). 

• The National Flood Insurance Program could incorporate the P3 concept to assist homeowners who cannot afford to invest in protective measures and to provide financial protection against catastrophic losses for risks that are considered uninsurable by the private sector alone.8
• The Dow Chemical Company and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) collaborated to make the case for incorporating nature into global business goals. In Texas, Dow and TNC are assessing the role coastal marshes play in protecting facilities and communities from storm damage.
• The Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities initiative provides financial support to hire and empower a city with a Chief Resilience Officer to manage resilience building activities. 
• The Climate Resilience AmeriCorps Pilot Program – the Administration recently selected ten new cities selected for the program that will support local resilience-building efforts.9 

Implement regulatory incentives and standards at the federal, state, and local levels. A few examples include: 

• Executive Order (EO) 13690 proposes a new Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) and gives agencies the flexibility to select one of three approaches to establish the flood elevation and hazard area for siting, design, and construction and requires, where possible, the use of ecosystems and nature based approaches.10 
• State building codes. IBHS found that modern building codes reduced the severity of losses due to Hurricane Charley in 2004 by 42 percent and loss frequency by 60 percent.11 
• Boulder was more resilient after the September 2013 flooding due to a few policies in place including: 1) a high hazard property acquisition program; 2) open space designations; 3) critical facilities ordinance; and 4) multiuse paths along many creeks.12 

Provide innovative financial incentives and resources to pre-event risk reduction.13   Investing in pre-disaster risk reduction, particularly natural infrastructure (dunes, wetlands, marshes, living shorelines, oyster beds, etc.) is cost-effective and provides multiple benefits.

• Along the Charles River in Massachusetts a fee-simple purchase and conservation easement acquisition of wetlands in the watershed costing one-tenth of the original dam and levee project.14 
• Michael Bloomberg speaks to many important examples and stratgies in a recent Foreign Affairs City Century blog including providing credit ratings eliminating laws that prevent them from investing in and profiting from sustainable projects.15 
• In 2014, Connecticut implemented its “Shore Up CT” program to assist residential or business property owners elevate buildings, retrofit properties with additional flood protection, or assist with wind-proofing structures on property that is prone to coastal flooding. Homeowners are able to receive a 15-year loan ranging from $10,000 to $300,000 at an annual interest rate of 2¾ per cent.16, 17 

Demonstrate what works. Social and behavioral scientist Dennis Mileti found that one of the first best practices to flood risk preparedness is to demonstrate preparedness actions.18  As Mileti has explained, it’s as simple as “monkey see monkey do”. Additionally, often metrics are unavailable for resilient approaches. For both of these reasons, it is critical to demonstrate what works by sharing case studies of flood risk management approaches that have proven to safeguard communities. To ensure and guide future investments in what works government agencies and academia should partner to measure the resilience of the different approaches.19

Think outside of the box. To move from planning to implementation and beyond incremental changes a few strategic steps include:20 

1. Remove barriers to implementation by finding innovative approaches to funding, policies and regulations, and better anticipating climate-related changes at the local level. 
2. Find the similarities from other approaches in different regions and sectors and adapt those to fit your scale and needs. 
3. Be strategic on how your goal can fit within other societal goals such as sustainable development, conservation, improvements in quality of life, among others so as to help incorporate that approach into existing decision-making processes. 
4. Assess threats and the tradeoffs of flood risk management approaches that incorporate multiple stresses by addressing costs, benefits, and risks of available options.

[1] President Obama delivers remarks at the GLACIER Conference in Alaska. August 31, 2015.

[2] NASA blog by Michael Carlowicz. August 26, 2015. Sea Level Rise Hits Home at NASA.

[3] NASA August 26, 2015. NASA Science Zeros in on Ocean Rise: How Much? How Soon?

[4] AECOM. 2013. The Impact of Climate Change and Population Growth on the National Flood Insurance Program Through 2100. June 2013

[5] U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment 2014.

[6] The White House. Commemorating the 10^th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. 

[7] USGCRP 2014 National Climate Assessment, Chapter 6: Adaptation.

[8] Howard Kunreuther. 2015. The Role of Insurance in Reducing Losses from Extreme Events: The Need for Public–Private Partnerships. The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.

[9] White House Blog.

[10] White House EO 13690.

[11] IBHS Benefits of statewide building codes.

[12] Emergency Management. June 24, 2014. 6 Key Takeaways from Colorado’s Devastating Flooding.

[13] See Zurich and Wharton School report. Beyond Katrina: Lessons In Creating Resilient Communities. August 20, 2015. and SmarterSafer.org report Bracing for the storm. 

[14]Carolyn Kousky. 2010. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research. Using Natural Capital to Reduce Disaster Risk.

[15] Michael Bloomberg. September/October 2015.City Century: Why Municipalities Are the Key to Fighting Climate Change.

[16] ShoreUpCT.

[17] Cobleigh 2014.

[18] Dennis S. Mileti. 2010. Influencing the Behavior of Individuals to Prepare for and Mitigate Flood Risk. ASFPM Annual conference.

[19] See Zurich and Wharton School Report Beyond Katrina: Lessons In Creating Resilient Communities. August 20, 2015.

[20] See USGCRP 2014 NCA Chapter 6: Adaptation Key Messages.